Stunned silence

I guess that's the best way of describing the post-Copenhagen feeling. Blogs are rather silent, there's a general whatthefuckjusthappened??!!?? feeling that lingers.

Though I expected nothing amazing from Copenhagen, I'm left rather stunned myself as well. But, I have come to accept that this will happen. The tidal wave is bearing down on us and like so many nightmares where you cannot move when the bogeyman comes at you, we collectively stand and do nothing.

My energy and thinking increasingly over these past years concentrates on how one can live through the next twenty-some years, and how me and mine would be able to live through the next few generations. Learning about backyard farming, for instance. Looking for that place to stay that's out of the firing lines. Developing knowledge and skills that will be useful in a changing society. Researching ways of becoming self-sufficient without drawing too much attention to it.

Like the frog that got boiled, change will come slowly even though the climate is changing faster than one would think. I only hope that humankind will actually survive this, long-term. I won't be there to see how things work out in a few hundred years, but I do hope so. For now, I doubt there is much we can still do to stop the tidal wave. It's coming up the beach already...

Het weer over 2009

Weer een warmer dan normaal jaar:

Het afgelopen jaar was warm. In De Bilt bedraagt de gemiddelde temperatuur naar schatting 10,5 graden tegen 9,8 graden normaal. Bovendien was het zeer zonnig: 2009 hoort tot de zonnigste jaren sinds de metingen begonnen in 1901. De zon scheen gemiddeld ruim 300 uur meer dan gewoonlijk. Verder viel er minder regen dan gewoonlijk.

Met de warmte heeft 2009 de trend voortgezet van de laatste jaren. Sinds 1997 waren alle dertien jaren te warm of veel te warm.

bron

De zomer van 2009 was de negende warme zomer in successie.

Nonsens, dat global warming? Tja, over 9 jaar kan je niets zeggen. Over 13 jaar ook niet. Maar ik kan wel opmerken dat dit trend binnen de voorspellingen van de klimaatmodellen past.

Mijn voorspelling voor 2010:
Sinds oktober 2009 is El Niño in opkomst. Een El Niño doet iets meer met ons weer dan een La Niña: de waarschijnlijkheid van een natte voorjaar neemt toe. Deze El Niño zal in ieder geval tot eind voorjaar sterk blijven, dus tot begin zomer meer regen dan gebruikelijk. Zomer wordt weer warm met weer meer weer-extremen dan in de jaren 80 en 90. Tussen augustus en oktober zit ik in Amerika, dan is het weer daar natuurlijk zalig, en in Nederland een ronde nul ;-)


Copenhagen is op niks uitgedraaid. Ik had al geen hoge verwachtingen maar een totale mislukking zoals het is geworden, had ik niet voorzien. Ik heb zo'n beetje de hoop opgegeven dat we de tij nog kunnen keren. Van de minderheid van Nederlanders die überhaupt geloven in global warming, is er volgens mij een aardig aantal die zich verkneukelen op Costa Hollandia, en het niet erg vinden dat het warmer wordt. Laat de rest van de wereld maar barsten (oh wee, als de dijken het niet meer kunnen bolwerken... maar voorlopig feesten we vrolijk verder). Het zij zo.

This planet does not have a reset button

Copenhagen failed dismally. No hard targets. Nothing binding, be it CO2 emissions or financial. It's weaker than Kyoto was! I didn't expect them to come up with what is needed, but I did not expect this much of a poor result either.

There's a generation waking up to the reality of climate change and what's (not) been done about it over the past 17+ years by our leaders. They understand increasingly well how special interests and our current political system have made this almost inevitable. I believe that they are angry and getting angrier. It does not help, that they are sidelined with great force whenever they try to take part in the political process; and by the way I think the police response in Copenhagen to protesters was overwhelming, disgracefully indiscriminate and at times inexcusably violent. I never expected this from a country such as Denmark. Almost none of that was reported, it is as if there was no protest at all, in Copenhagen. Just cutesy symbols here and there.

This was a last ditch opportunity, utterly squandered. I won't be surprised if this will birth a kind of environmental & political guerrilla movement. Soon, I believe the time for protest marches and hunger strikes and logo's and coloured flags will come to an end. I really do. Throughout history, if people cannot get what they need through legitimate channels, they choose other, more violent methods.

No, it would not surprise me at all if this fiasco gives birth to a new kind of terrorism (and, how handy that our governments have all these anti-terrorism legislation already in place, and how handy that the people of these times are so nonchalant about data privacy...)


Monbiot sums it up perfectly:

This is the chaotic, disastrous denouement of a chaotic and disastrous summit.

He is right: governments could move at lightning speed to save the banks, but our biosphere, that takes 17+ years and still no solution in sight.

We are moving backwards. Count me in with the angry.

CRU hacked mails - Jones steps down (temporarily)

I don't think he should.

This really is a storm about nothing and it's whipped up to grand proportions by those who would want Copenhagen to fail. He should not be paying the price for being the messenger of bad news. Climate scientists have been up against a concerted attack over the past years that has ever increased in ferocity. Against such sustained wilful misinformation, what do you do... how do you cope, how do you keep your message clear? I think climate scientists on the whole did an admirable job so far and none of them should not be intimidated into stepping down at this point.

Not accepting the reality of the science is wishful thinking, head in sand policy. People would rather it were not so and are in denial. This is partly why there is such a receptive audience for what clearly is a lot of hot air.

Does it matter in the end? Some say yes, but I believe it's past the point where we still can make the changes that would turn things around for us as a species. Hansen may still hope, still want to fight, but I think it's pretty useless.

Not that I'm going on a carbon binge now, understand, and I'll keep trying to spread the message, make people understand what we are facing. This is reflexive by now, I've been at it since the Club of Rome days. But, I am pretty sure I'm pissing agin' the wind here.

For those who want to understand what's going on, what's just so much dramatic b/s and what's a serious issue, I'm directing you here.

This is all I have to say about those leaked CRU emails

Hahahahaha.
Quite.

Professor Henry Brubaker, of the Institute for Studies, said: "While there will always be debate over climate data, it's important to remember that the state of the world's icebergs and glaciers remains wholly dependant on which group of tedious, hectoring arseholes is currently winning the argument."

350!!!

Even though the disinformation campaign has been so staggeringly successful that I really doubt it's any use any more, I'll still add my voice to all the others.

Copenhagen had better be a resounding success or we'll all be toast.



Tomorrow is the international day of the climate. What will you be doing?
More information here